Evaluating climate change effects on hydrological functionality and water‐related ecosystem services

The paper investigates the effects of climate change on riverine ecosystems in Upper Arno River basin, adopting a hybrid methodology relating changes streamflow to its related water ecosystem services. Twenty hydrological models were run using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), under their respective model emission scenario. variable obtained was analysed according method Indicators Hydrologic Alteration (IHA). development spatial maps IHA allowed us represent results three river subbasins studied, with focus presence hotspots. Using capture quantity dynamics, through groups magnitude, timing rates, where potential effect could be then linked concept Finally, presented as proxy that can integrated into existing Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, Response (DPSIR) management framework eventually move towards an ecosystem-based methodology. main results, induced from Mann–Kendall trend analysis IHA, suggested provisioning regulating services are affected by flows shows decreasing several scenarios, addition intensification extreme events. This shift is accompanied dynamics flow, which holds affecting habitat suitability. With emergence studies directed management, study refers well-established modelling evaluate driver provide screening ensure proactive response planning converges idea ecosystems.